Integrating agricultural water use with the global water budget (Foro Rosenberg)
- Resumen
- Water constitutes a key component in food production. While most attention in the past has been concentrated on blue/liquid water, this study represents a shift in thinking by incorporating also green water/naturally infiltrated soil water. The present consumptive water use in food production, estimated at some 7000 km3/yr, may be expected to increase till 2050 with altogether some 3000 km3/yr. The study analyses from where these amounts of water may come. It takes both a global and a country-level perspective, the latter based on a model study (LPJ model by the Potsdam Climate Institute), incorporating both climate change and population growth (slow fertility decline). The countries are analysed also in terms of water shortage, distinguishing between green water shortage and blue water shortage, trying to find out in what countries irrigation will not be a plausible way to meet green water deficiency. It shows that when both green and blue water resources are added, a number of countries in the North Africa, Middle East, W Asia, and S Asia regions will not be able to meet future food production needs on a self-sufficiency basis. In these countries the strategic choice for avoiding food insecurity will stand between import (virtual water), horizontal expansion to new land, or reduction of losses from food to plate. The study finally calls for attention to the additional water demand from the expanding biofuel sector, which will partly compete for the same land and water resources.
- Autor
- Falkenmark, Malin; Rockström, Johan
- Palabras Clave
- Agricultura de regadío, Recursos hídricos, Producción agrícola, Siglo XXI
- Idioma
- Inglés
- Documentos
- Ponencia ( 20 pag, 400 Kb )
- Presentación