Dealing with Uncertainties of Future Climate: The Special Challenge of Semi-Arid Regions
- Resumen
- Semi-arid regions face a range of threats from climate change, including droughts, flash flooding, soil degradation and erosion, desertification and water scarcity. For example, climate change is expected to decrease runoff and increase water resources stresses around the Mediterranean basin. However, precipitation scenarios are notoriously difficult toproduce for such areas because of the high variability and intermittence of rainfall in space and time. The task may be further exacerbated by complex orography and sparse observational networks. Nonetheless, tools and techniques are urgently needed to support regional climate change assessments, especially for developing countries in semi-arid and arid regions. This paper reviews the latesttechniquesforconstructingregionalrainfallscenarios insemi-arid areas such as the Mediterranean basin, North Africa and parts of the Middle East. Projections made from different climate models and downscaling techniques typically show large variations at river basin scales. Hence, there is increasing emphasis on indentifying ¿low regret¿ adaptation solutions ¿ those that make good sense regardless of the future climate scenario. Examples include seasonal forecasting to improve preparedness for drought, or a return to traditional water harvesting techniques. Other approaches such, as sensitivity analysis, help identify ¿tipping points¿ or limits to adaptation. However, efforts to characterise supply-side uncertainties must ultimately be balanced by initiatives to reduce water demand and hence minimise long-term vulnerability.
- Autor
- Wilby, Robert L.
- Palabras Clave
- Estepas, Zonas áridas, Mar Mediterráneo, Cambio climático, Lluvia
- Idioma
- Inglés
- Documentos
- Ponencia ( 11 pag, 618 Kb )
- Presentación
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