Future Rainfall Projections
- Resumen
- The rainfall distribution in a future climate is calculated using global climate models. These models, frequently derived from weather forecast models, solve the physical equations on a grid representing Earth¿s atmosphere. As rainfall is very patchy, multiple simulations with various models developed by different research groups are combined. These models predict in the case of an enhanced greenhouse gas concentration in the mean an increase of precipitation due to the higher temperature, but the distribution is not even. Generally, dry regions become dryer, while wet regions become wetter. In the regions with rainfall, there is a tendency towards more intense precipitation. The grid of global models has a resolution of typically 200-400 square kilometres. This is too coarse to estimate the precipitation change on a regional scale, for example a country with the size of Spain, or river catchments. High resolution regional models are imbedded into the global models to estimate the climate change up to a horizontal resolution of 10 kilometres. Statistical models have also been developed to obtain information on a regional scale.
- Autor
- Cubasch, Ulrich
- Palabras Clave
- Cambio climático, Calentamiento de la tierra, Meteorología, Lluvia
- Idioma
- Inglés
- Documentos
- Ponencia ( 6 pag, 1020 Kb )
- Presentación
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- Existe un Video disponible en el Centro de Documentación