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Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid. Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico

Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid. Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico
  • World Bank. April 2014
  • This paper uses a quasi-experimental approach to provide evidence on the electoral effect of government economic transfers as compensation for the damage caused by a natural shock: severe drought on rain-fed agricultural regions. Exploiting the discontinuity in payment of a government funded climatic contingency aid program in Mexico, it shows that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering drought relief compensation. Its estimates suggest 7.6 additional percentage points for the presidential incumbent's share of votes in those electoral sections received government transfers six to nine months before the election. The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 briefly describes the electoral context in Mexico and the Weather Index Insurance program. Section 3 presents the data. Section 4 discusses the statistical methodology and presents the main results. Finally, section 5 discusses the implications of the results found from the perspective of the study of political behaviour and voter responsiveness to relief aid after a natural disaster.
  • Geographical coverage: Latin America and the Caribbean, Mexico
  • Main themes: Agriculture, Climate change, Disaster prevention, Disasters, Drought, Financing, Resilience, Rural areas, Vulnerability
  • Main target audience: Decision makers, Governments, Policy makers
  • Main purpose: Assessment, Awareness raising, Impact evaluation, Reporting on project findings/outputs
  • Type of resource: Case studies, Policy briefing, Research study, Working paper
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Published in 2015